Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Shaw Capital Management February Newsletter: Government bond Markets 3 of 3
Shaw Capital Management February Newsletter: Government bond Markets 3 of 3 Jun 17, 2010 – Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Article three of three - The markets are assuming that the more powerful members of the eurozone will support the weaker members in order to prevent defaults that might threaten the single currency structure; but the yield spreads have widened considerably to reflect the increased risks. Our tentative view is that the markets will “muddle th.
Shaw Capital Management February Newsletter: Government bond Markets 3 of 3
Shaw Capital Management February Newsletter: Government bond Markets 3 of 3 Jun 17, 2010 – Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Article three of three - The markets are assuming that the more powerful members of the eurozone will support the weaker members in order to prevent defaults that might threaten the single currency structure; but the yield spreads have widened considerably to reflect the increased risks. Our tentative view is that the markets will “muddle th...
Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 3 Shaw Capital Management
Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 3: Shaw Capital Management - Much will depend on the attitude of overseas holders, and especially on the attitude of the Chinese and Japanese authorities. For the present they seem to be prepared to maintain and even increase their dollar exposure; and if this continues, and the problems of other major currencies remain unresolved, it should be enough to allow the dollar to “improve”. The euro struggled to recover in the early part of January from the big fall that occurred in December; but the recovery did not last very long, and it has subsequently fallen sharply again, to leave it value against the dollar around 10% below the level in early- December.
There has been no significant change in the underlying economic background, although there is some evidence that the fragile recovery that was developing is losing some momentum.
Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 3: Shaw Capital Management Korea - But there has been a serious deterioration in the financial background as the fears have increased that Greece and some other periphery countries in the euro-zone may be unable to fund their massive fiscal deficits, and service their sovereign debts. There is also considerable uncertainty about the intentions of the European Central Bank and the stronger countries if conditions continue to worsen, and so overseas holders have started to withdraw funds from the European capital markets to await developments.
The present lack of urgency at the central bank and amongst the key politicians suggests that this trend will continue, and that the euro will fall still further; but there is still some hope that the seriousness of the situation will finally produce a support operation that will ease the situation.
Shaw Capital Management News - All the available evidence continues to point to a slow, two-speed recovery in the euro-zone economy. Germany and France appear to be performing reasonably well, although there are some signs of slowdown in Germany; but Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and even Italy are struggling to escape from recession, and are expected to keep overall output in the euro-zone this year around the 1% level.
Shaw Capital Management News - There is also considerable uncertainty about the intentions of the European Central Bank and the stronger countries if conditions continue to worsen, and so overseas holders have started to withdraw funds from the European capital markets to await developments.
Retail sales remain depressed, and fell by 1.2% between October and November to reflect the continuing caution of consumers; and industrial orders in Germany rose by much less than expected in November, after a very disappointing result in October, to indicate some weakness in export prospects that had been expected to provide significant momentum to the economy.
There has been no significant change in the underlying economic background, although there is some evidence that the fragile recovery that was developing is losing some momentum.
Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 3: Shaw Capital Management Korea - But there has been a serious deterioration in the financial background as the fears have increased that Greece and some other periphery countries in the euro-zone may be unable to fund their massive fiscal deficits, and service their sovereign debts. There is also considerable uncertainty about the intentions of the European Central Bank and the stronger countries if conditions continue to worsen, and so overseas holders have started to withdraw funds from the European capital markets to await developments.
The present lack of urgency at the central bank and amongst the key politicians suggests that this trend will continue, and that the euro will fall still further; but there is still some hope that the seriousness of the situation will finally produce a support operation that will ease the situation.
Shaw Capital Management News - All the available evidence continues to point to a slow, two-speed recovery in the euro-zone economy. Germany and France appear to be performing reasonably well, although there are some signs of slowdown in Germany; but Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and even Italy are struggling to escape from recession, and are expected to keep overall output in the euro-zone this year around the 1% level.
Shaw Capital Management News - There is also considerable uncertainty about the intentions of the European Central Bank and the stronger countries if conditions continue to worsen, and so overseas holders have started to withdraw funds from the European capital markets to await developments.
Retail sales remain depressed, and fell by 1.2% between October and November to reflect the continuing caution of consumers; and industrial orders in Germany rose by much less than expected in November, after a very disappointing result in October, to indicate some weakness in export prospects that had been expected to provide significant momentum to the economy.
Shaw Capital Management News: Flex-Fuel Power Plants Now Opening in Brazil3338
GE wants to see how its turbines can be adapted to work in flex-fuel plants in Brazil and in developed countries like Japan, where clean-burning power plants are gaining momentum.
Brazil's water-dependent hydroelectric infrastructure teeters during the dry season in places where natural gas isn't easily accessible. It just so happens that wind power peaks at the opposite time of the year as the water in running rivers that drives dam-based generation.
Ethanol and wind could supplant natural gas as the primary alternative source of electricity generation during the dry season in Brazil and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said in the Brazilian press that Brazil could be selfsufficient in natural gas after several pre-salt (read: incredibly deep) offshore fossil fuel pockets are tapped.
That capacity is at least five years away. Ethanol is there now, and after wind power auctions started last December, 773 wind turbines will be turning across Brazil by 2012.
Shaw Capital Management Korea News: Shell, Petrobras, GE, and Cosan will surely push hard to get the government in Brasilia to initiate a nationwide "ethanol electricity" campaign to ensure that oil and automotive fuel aren't the key determinants of sugar ethanol's success.
As in so many other areas of the world, those communities that are now underserved by fossil fuels can benefit most from such clean energy advances.
The US Administration completed its revised Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2). RFS2 will move towards a national goal of 26 billion gallons of biofuel production by 2022.
At Shaw Capital Management we give you the information and insight you need to make the right investment choices. We look forward to working with you and being the open architects of your financial well being.
Shaw Capital Management Korea - Investment Innovation & Excellence. We provide the information, insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. Shaw Capital Management Korea typically offers its clients such services as asset allocation and portfolio design; traditional and non-traditional manager review and selection; portfolio implementation; portfolio monitoring and consolidated performance reporting; and other wealth management services, including estate, tax, trust and insurance planning, asset custody, closely held business issues associated with the establishment or expansion of a family office, the formation of family investment partnerships or LLCs, philanthropy, family dynamics and inter-generation issues, etc.
Every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.
Our philosophy is simple: almost every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.
Before Shaw Capital Management Korea launched the open architecture revolution, investors had to make the unhappy choice between selecting an advisor who was independent, but unsophisticated (the traditional pension and endowment consulting firms), or selecting an advisor who was sophisticated but had conflicting interests (global banks, trust companies, money management firms)
Brazil's water-dependent hydroelectric infrastructure teeters during the dry season in places where natural gas isn't easily accessible. It just so happens that wind power peaks at the opposite time of the year as the water in running rivers that drives dam-based generation.
Ethanol and wind could supplant natural gas as the primary alternative source of electricity generation during the dry season in Brazil and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said in the Brazilian press that Brazil could be selfsufficient in natural gas after several pre-salt (read: incredibly deep) offshore fossil fuel pockets are tapped.
That capacity is at least five years away. Ethanol is there now, and after wind power auctions started last December, 773 wind turbines will be turning across Brazil by 2012.
Shaw Capital Management Korea News: Shell, Petrobras, GE, and Cosan will surely push hard to get the government in Brasilia to initiate a nationwide "ethanol electricity" campaign to ensure that oil and automotive fuel aren't the key determinants of sugar ethanol's success.
As in so many other areas of the world, those communities that are now underserved by fossil fuels can benefit most from such clean energy advances.
The US Administration completed its revised Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2). RFS2 will move towards a national goal of 26 billion gallons of biofuel production by 2022.
At Shaw Capital Management we give you the information and insight you need to make the right investment choices. We look forward to working with you and being the open architects of your financial well being.
Shaw Capital Management Korea - Investment Innovation & Excellence. We provide the information, insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. Shaw Capital Management Korea typically offers its clients such services as asset allocation and portfolio design; traditional and non-traditional manager review and selection; portfolio implementation; portfolio monitoring and consolidated performance reporting; and other wealth management services, including estate, tax, trust and insurance planning, asset custody, closely held business issues associated with the establishment or expansion of a family office, the formation of family investment partnerships or LLCs, philanthropy, family dynamics and inter-generation issues, etc.
Every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.
Our philosophy is simple: almost every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.
Before Shaw Capital Management Korea launched the open architecture revolution, investors had to make the unhappy choice between selecting an advisor who was independent, but unsophisticated (the traditional pension and endowment consulting firms), or selecting an advisor who was sophisticated but had conflicting interests (global banks, trust companies, money management firms)
Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management
Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management Korea: This is clearly leading to a withdrawal of international funds from the European capital markets, and is dramatically illustrated in the widening of yield spreads in the bond markets of member countries. There is still a general assumption that the stronger members will provide support for the weaker members if this proves to be necessary to prevent a default on sovereign debts.
But the uncertainties have been increased by conflicting statements from the European Central Bank and some politicians about the willingness to undertake such operations, and so investors and speculators have taken evasive action, and the euro has fallen by around 10% from its peak in early-December.
This fall has provided support for the other major world currencies, including the dollar; but the background situations in Japan, and in the UK, also provide reasons for concern, and so the currency markets remain in a very uncertain state.
Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management - It is likely that the uncertainty will continue. The US economy is clearly recovering from recession; economic conditions in Japan are very weak, and Japan appears to face the possibility of a credit downgrade if it does not take steps to reduce its massive fiscal deficit; and there have already been warnings from Standard and Poor’s that the UK also faces the possibility of a credit downgrade if there are no convincing measures to reduce its huge fiscal deficit after the forthcoming general election. Prospects are therefore very difficult to assess; but our tentative conclusion is that the dollar will continue to “improve”, helped to a considerable extent by weaknesses elsewhere; and that this will allow market pressures to gradually subside as the global economic recovery continues through the year.
But the possibility of a major currency crisis cannot be ignored, especially if the debt problems in Greece and other periphery countries threaten to lead to the break-up of the single currency system in Europe. It is fortunate therefore that the available evidence on the performance of the US economy is more encouraging. Non-farm payrolls fell again in December by 85,000, but are expected to have increased in January; retail sales held up well in the pre-Christmas period; manufacturing output is improving, according to the latest report from the Institute of Supply Management; and even the housing market appears to be recovering.
This general situation is reflected in the first preliminary estimate from the Commerce Department of growth at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 5.7% in the final quarter of last year, a higher figure than the market had been expecting. Most economists therefore appear to be forecasting overall growth this year in the 2.5% to 3% range, after the estimated fall of 2.4% last year.
Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management - The Fed is clearly in no hurry to tighten its present monetary stance. The statement after the latest meeting of its Open Market Committee was more upbeat about the prospects for the economy; but shortterm interest rates were left unchanged and close to zero, and there was a clear indication that they would remain at very low levels “for an extended period”.
The bank did state that it will discontinue most of its emergency lending programmes, and that it would end its purchases of mortgage securities in March; but there was no indication that it would be prepared to implement an “exit strategy” until there was convincing evidence of a sustainable economic recovery. It is also unlikely that there will be any early changes in fiscal policy.
But the uncertainties have been increased by conflicting statements from the European Central Bank and some politicians about the willingness to undertake such operations, and so investors and speculators have taken evasive action, and the euro has fallen by around 10% from its peak in early-December.
This fall has provided support for the other major world currencies, including the dollar; but the background situations in Japan, and in the UK, also provide reasons for concern, and so the currency markets remain in a very uncertain state.
Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management - It is likely that the uncertainty will continue. The US economy is clearly recovering from recession; economic conditions in Japan are very weak, and Japan appears to face the possibility of a credit downgrade if it does not take steps to reduce its massive fiscal deficit; and there have already been warnings from Standard and Poor’s that the UK also faces the possibility of a credit downgrade if there are no convincing measures to reduce its huge fiscal deficit after the forthcoming general election. Prospects are therefore very difficult to assess; but our tentative conclusion is that the dollar will continue to “improve”, helped to a considerable extent by weaknesses elsewhere; and that this will allow market pressures to gradually subside as the global economic recovery continues through the year.
But the possibility of a major currency crisis cannot be ignored, especially if the debt problems in Greece and other periphery countries threaten to lead to the break-up of the single currency system in Europe. It is fortunate therefore that the available evidence on the performance of the US economy is more encouraging. Non-farm payrolls fell again in December by 85,000, but are expected to have increased in January; retail sales held up well in the pre-Christmas period; manufacturing output is improving, according to the latest report from the Institute of Supply Management; and even the housing market appears to be recovering.
This general situation is reflected in the first preliminary estimate from the Commerce Department of growth at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 5.7% in the final quarter of last year, a higher figure than the market had been expecting. Most economists therefore appear to be forecasting overall growth this year in the 2.5% to 3% range, after the estimated fall of 2.4% last year.
Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management - The Fed is clearly in no hurry to tighten its present monetary stance. The statement after the latest meeting of its Open Market Committee was more upbeat about the prospects for the economy; but shortterm interest rates were left unchanged and close to zero, and there was a clear indication that they would remain at very low levels “for an extended period”.
The bank did state that it will discontinue most of its emergency lending programmes, and that it would end its purchases of mortgage securities in March; but there was no indication that it would be prepared to implement an “exit strategy” until there was convincing evidence of a sustainable economic recovery. It is also unlikely that there will be any early changes in fiscal policy.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
pGovernment bond Markets Part 2 of 3, Shaw Capital Management Newsletter
Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Article two of three - However the more serious consideration was the downgrade of Greece's credit rating, and the threat that other member countries of the euro-zone might receive similar treatment because of the increased risk of defaults. Bond issues in the zone reached the equivalent of $1350 billion in 2009, and are likely to exceed that figure this year, with Greece alone needing to sell $83 billion, and likely to try to rely on overseas investors for at least half the funds
Shaw Capital Management - Innovation and Excellence
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We look forward to working with you and being the open architects of your financial well being.
Read more about our company and how we can help you to manage your wealth and reach your investment goals.
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Keep up to date with Shaw Capital news and important industry developments.
We look forward to working with you and being the open architects of your financial well being.
Read more about our company and how we can help you to manage your wealth and reach your investment goals.
A New Economy
Smart money is now wise to the problems of the past years; good investments are now here.
Shaw Capital Management and the New Economy
Read more about Shaw Capital and the New Economy.
Strategies
Our goal is to provide consistent quality investment advice to our clients.
Shaw Capital Management and our Investment Strategies
Read more about our corporate strategies.
Services
As the leading open architecture advisory firm, we possess a number of characteristics that set us apart from other companies.
* Independence
* Experience
* Making our experience count
* Intellectual leadership
* Centralized knowledge base
Learn more about our unique service offer.
Downloads
Keep up to date with Shaw Capital news and important industry developments.
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