Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Shaw Capital Management February Newsletter: Government bond Markets 3 of 3
Shaw Capital Management February Newsletter: Government bond Markets 3 of 3 Jun 17, 2010 – Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Article three of three - The markets are assuming that the more powerful members of the eurozone will support the weaker members in order to prevent defaults that might threaten the single currency structure; but the yield spreads have widened considerably to reflect the increased risks. Our tentative view is that the markets will “muddle th.
Shaw Capital Management February Newsletter: Government bond Markets 3 of 3
Shaw Capital Management February Newsletter: Government bond Markets 3 of 3 Jun 17, 2010 – Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Article three of three - The markets are assuming that the more powerful members of the eurozone will support the weaker members in order to prevent defaults that might threaten the single currency structure; but the yield spreads have widened considerably to reflect the increased risks. Our tentative view is that the markets will “muddle th...
Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 3 Shaw Capital Management
Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 3: Shaw Capital Management - Much will depend on the attitude of overseas holders, and especially on the attitude of the Chinese and Japanese authorities. For the present they seem to be prepared to maintain and even increase their dollar exposure; and if this continues, and the problems of other major currencies remain unresolved, it should be enough to allow the dollar to “improve”. The euro struggled to recover in the early part of January from the big fall that occurred in December; but the recovery did not last very long, and it has subsequently fallen sharply again, to leave it value against the dollar around 10% below the level in early- December.
There has been no significant change in the underlying economic background, although there is some evidence that the fragile recovery that was developing is losing some momentum.
Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 3: Shaw Capital Management Korea - But there has been a serious deterioration in the financial background as the fears have increased that Greece and some other periphery countries in the euro-zone may be unable to fund their massive fiscal deficits, and service their sovereign debts. There is also considerable uncertainty about the intentions of the European Central Bank and the stronger countries if conditions continue to worsen, and so overseas holders have started to withdraw funds from the European capital markets to await developments.
The present lack of urgency at the central bank and amongst the key politicians suggests that this trend will continue, and that the euro will fall still further; but there is still some hope that the seriousness of the situation will finally produce a support operation that will ease the situation.
Shaw Capital Management News - All the available evidence continues to point to a slow, two-speed recovery in the euro-zone economy. Germany and France appear to be performing reasonably well, although there are some signs of slowdown in Germany; but Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and even Italy are struggling to escape from recession, and are expected to keep overall output in the euro-zone this year around the 1% level.
Shaw Capital Management News - There is also considerable uncertainty about the intentions of the European Central Bank and the stronger countries if conditions continue to worsen, and so overseas holders have started to withdraw funds from the European capital markets to await developments.
Retail sales remain depressed, and fell by 1.2% between October and November to reflect the continuing caution of consumers; and industrial orders in Germany rose by much less than expected in November, after a very disappointing result in October, to indicate some weakness in export prospects that had been expected to provide significant momentum to the economy.
There has been no significant change in the underlying economic background, although there is some evidence that the fragile recovery that was developing is losing some momentum.
Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 3: Shaw Capital Management Korea - But there has been a serious deterioration in the financial background as the fears have increased that Greece and some other periphery countries in the euro-zone may be unable to fund their massive fiscal deficits, and service their sovereign debts. There is also considerable uncertainty about the intentions of the European Central Bank and the stronger countries if conditions continue to worsen, and so overseas holders have started to withdraw funds from the European capital markets to await developments.
The present lack of urgency at the central bank and amongst the key politicians suggests that this trend will continue, and that the euro will fall still further; but there is still some hope that the seriousness of the situation will finally produce a support operation that will ease the situation.
Shaw Capital Management News - All the available evidence continues to point to a slow, two-speed recovery in the euro-zone economy. Germany and France appear to be performing reasonably well, although there are some signs of slowdown in Germany; but Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and even Italy are struggling to escape from recession, and are expected to keep overall output in the euro-zone this year around the 1% level.
Shaw Capital Management News - There is also considerable uncertainty about the intentions of the European Central Bank and the stronger countries if conditions continue to worsen, and so overseas holders have started to withdraw funds from the European capital markets to await developments.
Retail sales remain depressed, and fell by 1.2% between October and November to reflect the continuing caution of consumers; and industrial orders in Germany rose by much less than expected in November, after a very disappointing result in October, to indicate some weakness in export prospects that had been expected to provide significant momentum to the economy.
Shaw Capital Management News: Flex-Fuel Power Plants Now Opening in Brazil3338
GE wants to see how its turbines can be adapted to work in flex-fuel plants in Brazil and in developed countries like Japan, where clean-burning power plants are gaining momentum.
Brazil's water-dependent hydroelectric infrastructure teeters during the dry season in places where natural gas isn't easily accessible. It just so happens that wind power peaks at the opposite time of the year as the water in running rivers that drives dam-based generation.
Ethanol and wind could supplant natural gas as the primary alternative source of electricity generation during the dry season in Brazil and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said in the Brazilian press that Brazil could be selfsufficient in natural gas after several pre-salt (read: incredibly deep) offshore fossil fuel pockets are tapped.
That capacity is at least five years away. Ethanol is there now, and after wind power auctions started last December, 773 wind turbines will be turning across Brazil by 2012.
Shaw Capital Management Korea News: Shell, Petrobras, GE, and Cosan will surely push hard to get the government in Brasilia to initiate a nationwide "ethanol electricity" campaign to ensure that oil and automotive fuel aren't the key determinants of sugar ethanol's success.
As in so many other areas of the world, those communities that are now underserved by fossil fuels can benefit most from such clean energy advances.
The US Administration completed its revised Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2). RFS2 will move towards a national goal of 26 billion gallons of biofuel production by 2022.
At Shaw Capital Management we give you the information and insight you need to make the right investment choices. We look forward to working with you and being the open architects of your financial well being.
Shaw Capital Management Korea - Investment Innovation & Excellence. We provide the information, insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. Shaw Capital Management Korea typically offers its clients such services as asset allocation and portfolio design; traditional and non-traditional manager review and selection; portfolio implementation; portfolio monitoring and consolidated performance reporting; and other wealth management services, including estate, tax, trust and insurance planning, asset custody, closely held business issues associated with the establishment or expansion of a family office, the formation of family investment partnerships or LLCs, philanthropy, family dynamics and inter-generation issues, etc.
Every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.
Our philosophy is simple: almost every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.
Before Shaw Capital Management Korea launched the open architecture revolution, investors had to make the unhappy choice between selecting an advisor who was independent, but unsophisticated (the traditional pension and endowment consulting firms), or selecting an advisor who was sophisticated but had conflicting interests (global banks, trust companies, money management firms)
Brazil's water-dependent hydroelectric infrastructure teeters during the dry season in places where natural gas isn't easily accessible. It just so happens that wind power peaks at the opposite time of the year as the water in running rivers that drives dam-based generation.
Ethanol and wind could supplant natural gas as the primary alternative source of electricity generation during the dry season in Brazil and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said in the Brazilian press that Brazil could be selfsufficient in natural gas after several pre-salt (read: incredibly deep) offshore fossil fuel pockets are tapped.
That capacity is at least five years away. Ethanol is there now, and after wind power auctions started last December, 773 wind turbines will be turning across Brazil by 2012.
Shaw Capital Management Korea News: Shell, Petrobras, GE, and Cosan will surely push hard to get the government in Brasilia to initiate a nationwide "ethanol electricity" campaign to ensure that oil and automotive fuel aren't the key determinants of sugar ethanol's success.
As in so many other areas of the world, those communities that are now underserved by fossil fuels can benefit most from such clean energy advances.
The US Administration completed its revised Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2). RFS2 will move towards a national goal of 26 billion gallons of biofuel production by 2022.
At Shaw Capital Management we give you the information and insight you need to make the right investment choices. We look forward to working with you and being the open architects of your financial well being.
Shaw Capital Management Korea - Investment Innovation & Excellence. We provide the information, insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. Shaw Capital Management Korea typically offers its clients such services as asset allocation and portfolio design; traditional and non-traditional manager review and selection; portfolio implementation; portfolio monitoring and consolidated performance reporting; and other wealth management services, including estate, tax, trust and insurance planning, asset custody, closely held business issues associated with the establishment or expansion of a family office, the formation of family investment partnerships or LLCs, philanthropy, family dynamics and inter-generation issues, etc.
Every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.
Our philosophy is simple: almost every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.
Before Shaw Capital Management Korea launched the open architecture revolution, investors had to make the unhappy choice between selecting an advisor who was independent, but unsophisticated (the traditional pension and endowment consulting firms), or selecting an advisor who was sophisticated but had conflicting interests (global banks, trust companies, money management firms)
Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management
Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management Korea: This is clearly leading to a withdrawal of international funds from the European capital markets, and is dramatically illustrated in the widening of yield spreads in the bond markets of member countries. There is still a general assumption that the stronger members will provide support for the weaker members if this proves to be necessary to prevent a default on sovereign debts.
But the uncertainties have been increased by conflicting statements from the European Central Bank and some politicians about the willingness to undertake such operations, and so investors and speculators have taken evasive action, and the euro has fallen by around 10% from its peak in early-December.
This fall has provided support for the other major world currencies, including the dollar; but the background situations in Japan, and in the UK, also provide reasons for concern, and so the currency markets remain in a very uncertain state.
Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management - It is likely that the uncertainty will continue. The US economy is clearly recovering from recession; economic conditions in Japan are very weak, and Japan appears to face the possibility of a credit downgrade if it does not take steps to reduce its massive fiscal deficit; and there have already been warnings from Standard and Poor’s that the UK also faces the possibility of a credit downgrade if there are no convincing measures to reduce its huge fiscal deficit after the forthcoming general election. Prospects are therefore very difficult to assess; but our tentative conclusion is that the dollar will continue to “improve”, helped to a considerable extent by weaknesses elsewhere; and that this will allow market pressures to gradually subside as the global economic recovery continues through the year.
But the possibility of a major currency crisis cannot be ignored, especially if the debt problems in Greece and other periphery countries threaten to lead to the break-up of the single currency system in Europe. It is fortunate therefore that the available evidence on the performance of the US economy is more encouraging. Non-farm payrolls fell again in December by 85,000, but are expected to have increased in January; retail sales held up well in the pre-Christmas period; manufacturing output is improving, according to the latest report from the Institute of Supply Management; and even the housing market appears to be recovering.
This general situation is reflected in the first preliminary estimate from the Commerce Department of growth at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 5.7% in the final quarter of last year, a higher figure than the market had been expecting. Most economists therefore appear to be forecasting overall growth this year in the 2.5% to 3% range, after the estimated fall of 2.4% last year.
Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management - The Fed is clearly in no hurry to tighten its present monetary stance. The statement after the latest meeting of its Open Market Committee was more upbeat about the prospects for the economy; but shortterm interest rates were left unchanged and close to zero, and there was a clear indication that they would remain at very low levels “for an extended period”.
The bank did state that it will discontinue most of its emergency lending programmes, and that it would end its purchases of mortgage securities in March; but there was no indication that it would be prepared to implement an “exit strategy” until there was convincing evidence of a sustainable economic recovery. It is also unlikely that there will be any early changes in fiscal policy.
But the uncertainties have been increased by conflicting statements from the European Central Bank and some politicians about the willingness to undertake such operations, and so investors and speculators have taken evasive action, and the euro has fallen by around 10% from its peak in early-December.
This fall has provided support for the other major world currencies, including the dollar; but the background situations in Japan, and in the UK, also provide reasons for concern, and so the currency markets remain in a very uncertain state.
Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management - It is likely that the uncertainty will continue. The US economy is clearly recovering from recession; economic conditions in Japan are very weak, and Japan appears to face the possibility of a credit downgrade if it does not take steps to reduce its massive fiscal deficit; and there have already been warnings from Standard and Poor’s that the UK also faces the possibility of a credit downgrade if there are no convincing measures to reduce its huge fiscal deficit after the forthcoming general election. Prospects are therefore very difficult to assess; but our tentative conclusion is that the dollar will continue to “improve”, helped to a considerable extent by weaknesses elsewhere; and that this will allow market pressures to gradually subside as the global economic recovery continues through the year.
But the possibility of a major currency crisis cannot be ignored, especially if the debt problems in Greece and other periphery countries threaten to lead to the break-up of the single currency system in Europe. It is fortunate therefore that the available evidence on the performance of the US economy is more encouraging. Non-farm payrolls fell again in December by 85,000, but are expected to have increased in January; retail sales held up well in the pre-Christmas period; manufacturing output is improving, according to the latest report from the Institute of Supply Management; and even the housing market appears to be recovering.
This general situation is reflected in the first preliminary estimate from the Commerce Department of growth at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 5.7% in the final quarter of last year, a higher figure than the market had been expecting. Most economists therefore appear to be forecasting overall growth this year in the 2.5% to 3% range, after the estimated fall of 2.4% last year.
Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management - The Fed is clearly in no hurry to tighten its present monetary stance. The statement after the latest meeting of its Open Market Committee was more upbeat about the prospects for the economy; but shortterm interest rates were left unchanged and close to zero, and there was a clear indication that they would remain at very low levels “for an extended period”.
The bank did state that it will discontinue most of its emergency lending programmes, and that it would end its purchases of mortgage securities in March; but there was no indication that it would be prepared to implement an “exit strategy” until there was convincing evidence of a sustainable economic recovery. It is also unlikely that there will be any early changes in fiscal policy.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
pGovernment bond Markets Part 2 of 3, Shaw Capital Management Newsletter
Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Article two of three - However the more serious consideration was the downgrade of Greece's credit rating, and the threat that other member countries of the euro-zone might receive similar treatment because of the increased risk of defaults. Bond issues in the zone reached the equivalent of $1350 billion in 2009, and are likely to exceed that figure this year, with Greece alone needing to sell $83 billion, and likely to try to rely on overseas investors for at least half the funds
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We look forward to working with you and being the open architects of your financial well being.
Read more about our company and how we can help you to manage your wealth and reach your investment goals.
A New Economy
Smart money is now wise to the problems of the past years; good investments are now here.
Shaw Capital Management and the New Economy
Read more about Shaw Capital and the New Economy.
Strategies
Our goal is to provide consistent quality investment advice to our clients.
Shaw Capital Management and our Investment Strategies
Read more about our corporate strategies.
Services
As the leading open architecture advisory firm, we possess a number of characteristics that set us apart from other companies.
* Independence
* Experience
* Making our experience count
* Intellectual leadership
* Centralized knowledge base
Learn more about our unique service offer.
Downloads
Keep up to date with Shaw Capital news and important industry developments.
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Shaw Capital Management News -Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 4
Prospects therefore remain disappointing, and are being made worse by the differences that exist between member countries. The European Central Bank therefore faces a difficult situation. It continues to forecast “moderate” growth and “moderate” inflation; but it is being severely criticised for failing to address the problems of a two-speed economy, and for its unwillingness so far to face the threat that the deteriorating situation in Greece could quickly begin to destabilise other member countries and have serious consequences for the financial stability and growth prospects of the entire area.
It is not surprising therefore that investors and speculators have started to reduce their exposure to the euro.
It is not surprising therefore that investors and speculators have started to reduce their exposure to the euro.
Shaw Capital Management News - Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 4: - The critical question therefore is whether the fall of the euro is now over. Since the currency is unlikely to receive any real support from the general background situation in the euro-zone, everything depends on the developing debt situation, and particularly on the situation in Greece; and also on the possibility of support operations from stronger member countries and from the European Central Bank, and the European Commission. The situation remains uncertain. The central bank appears to be reluctant to offer help, and the German government, which might have been expected to become involved, has also made no response so far.
Shaw Capital Management News - But the European Commission has endorsed the latest plans by the Greek government to introduce an across-the-board freeze on public sector wages and cuts in allowances that are expected to reduce the overall public sector wage bill by around 4%.
This may encourage support from elsewhere; however the Commission has warned that it will not tolerate any slippage from the target and will if necessary demand tougher action from the government to ensure that it stays on course.
Shaw Capital Management News - But the European Commission has endorsed the latest plans by the Greek government to introduce an across-the-board freeze on public sector wages and cuts in allowances that are expected to reduce the overall public sector wage bill by around 4%.
This may encourage support from elsewhere; however the Commission has warned that it will not tolerate any slippage from the target and will if necessary demand tougher action from the government to ensure that it stays on course.
But it is far from clear that the Greek government can obtain the necessary support in parliament even for the present proposed measures, and so the uncertainty will continue.
It is therefore likely that there will be further falls in the euro over the coming weeks.
Sterling has improved slightly over the past month, helped by the weakness of the euro.
Shaw Capital Management News - The background situation in the UK remains unattractive, and there have already been threats that its AAA credit rating is at risk unless there are credible measures to reduce the massive fiscal deficit after the forthcoming general election is over.
It is therefore likely that there will be further falls in the euro over the coming weeks.
Sterling has improved slightly over the past month, helped by the weakness of the euro.
Shaw Capital Management News - The background situation in the UK remains unattractive, and there have already been threats that its AAA credit rating is at risk unless there are credible measures to reduce the massive fiscal deficit after the forthcoming general election is over.
Shaw Capital Management Newsletter: Japan Submits Budget for 2010
The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government submitted to the Diet the fiscal 2010 budget amounting to ¥92.3 trillion, its first budget since its inauguration in mid-September. The budget was even larger than its counterpart for the current fiscal year — which was already a record if one includes the second supplementary stimulus package, approved last December. This was because of additional spending on child allowances, free senior high school education, cash subsidies to farmers, and higher payments to
medical institutions to alleviate the shortage of medical doctors. Particularly noteworthy is the large amount devoted to social security, up to ¥27.3 trillion, which account for 51% of general public spending … the first time that the social security share has exceeded 50%. In marked contrast, public works investment, which has been cut back by almost 20%, amounts to ¥5.8 trillion, a record drop that symbolizes the DPJ’s philosophy of shifting money to people from public works... eightynine dam projects are likely to be frozen. At a news conference, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama described it as “a
budget meant to safeguard the life of the people.” He also claimed that three reforms were incorporated in the architecture of the budget: first, the principle of a shift of priority “from concrete to people”; second,
initiatives taken by politicians instead of bureaucrats; and third, securing transparency in the budget formulation process. Some creditable aspects notwithstanding, the budget bill appears to be overshadowed, as media reports made clear, by concern over a severe revenue shortage and its implications for the future of Japan’s public finances, which are already debt-laden to a perilous extent as recently pointed out by credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s which raised the prospect of a downgrade in Japan’s sovereign debt rating.
“The budget bill appears to be overshadowed by concern over a severe revenue shortage and its implications for the future of Japan’spublic finances, which are already debt-laden to a perilous extent.”
“Japan’s economic policy flexibility has diminished as a result of increased fiscal deficits and government debt, persistent deflation and a prospect of continued sluggish economic growth”, analysts at the firm said in a note. “It’s impossible to keep tolerating this massive spending,” said Takeshi Minami , chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute in Tokyo. “Japan’s fiscal health will continue to be exceedingly severe given revenue won’t grow and a stagnant recovery may require additional economic
measures.” A major reason for the squeeze is a plunge in prospective tax revenues due to the economic downturn and the drop in corporate profits. Tax revenues for fiscal 2010 are estimated to fall to ¥37.4 trillion, the same level as 26 years ago, in the mid-1980s — while corporate tax revenues are expected
to be half the amount in normal years. As a result, the government has to raise ¥44.3 billion in new government bonds, compared to ¥53.5 trillion in FY2009. This leaves the treasury dependent on debt for 48% of the total budget, up 10 percentage points. At the end of the fiscal year, on March 31, 2011, the
outstanding balance of government bond issues will have shot up to ¥637 trillion, the equivalent of 134% of Japan’s GDP while public debt will probably spiral to ¥973 trillion, almost double GDP.
“At the end of the fiscal year, on March 31, 2011, the outstanding balance of government bond issues will have shot up to ¥637 trillion, the equivalent of 134% of Japan’s GDP while public debt will probably spiral to ¥973 trillion, almost double GDP.”
According to the new government, the economic policies adopted by the previous ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), failed on two fronts: initially boosting demand by increasing public investment, which was effective in the short term but not sustainable until the end of the 1990s. And later enhancing the supply side of the economy by deregulating the labour market and privatizing public entities, which simply widened the income gap within the economy, in the 2000s. However, the new budget was not well received by most observers. The announcement was rather sudden and lacked a comprehensive path to
achieve the stated goals, they claim. Also, no reliable, specific incentives were offered, such as tax changes or deregulation that affect private sector behaviour.
More importantly, given its enormous debt, the government has limited room to offer any incentives without jeopardizing other parts of the economy. However, there was no mention of these painful trade-offs. In addition, while the budget contains some signs of change, there is concern that it may not adequately stimulate the economy. Most private sector economists believe that spending measures in the fiscal 2010 budget (and in the second fiscal 2009 supplementary budget) are expected to provide a limited boost to Japan’s GDP and to kick in no sooner than April
.
“Most private sector economists believe that spending measures in the fiscal 2010 budget are expected to provide a limited boost to Japan’s GDP and to kick in no sooner than April.”
Overall, the budget appears to be the result of a compromise between an attempt to impose some fiscal discipline and the promises made in last year’s summer election of new direct supports to households, such as child allowance, as well as concern over a double-dip recession. “Harsh financial conditions have prevented the administration from keeping all the promises that the DPJ made during its campaign last summer (for instance it has eliminated highway tolls and the gasoline tax). But the administration has succeeded, to some extent, in realizing the party’s slogan of “shifting weight to people from concrete” and its aim of providing more funds for households, rather than for industry-linked organizations and large-scale public works projects”, asserted in its editorial the Japan Times, one of the main national newspapers.
“Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats.”
The budget must now be approved by Japan’s parliament before taking effect. Hatoyama’s popularity has dropped to 48% this month from 71% after he took the office in September. Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats. So in the end the budget and its goals may be more dream than reality.
medical institutions to alleviate the shortage of medical doctors. Particularly noteworthy is the large amount devoted to social security, up to ¥27.3 trillion, which account for 51% of general public spending … the first time that the social security share has exceeded 50%. In marked contrast, public works investment, which has been cut back by almost 20%, amounts to ¥5.8 trillion, a record drop that symbolizes the DPJ’s philosophy of shifting money to people from public works... eightynine dam projects are likely to be frozen. At a news conference, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama described it as “a
budget meant to safeguard the life of the people.” He also claimed that three reforms were incorporated in the architecture of the budget: first, the principle of a shift of priority “from concrete to people”; second,
initiatives taken by politicians instead of bureaucrats; and third, securing transparency in the budget formulation process. Some creditable aspects notwithstanding, the budget bill appears to be overshadowed, as media reports made clear, by concern over a severe revenue shortage and its implications for the future of Japan’s public finances, which are already debt-laden to a perilous extent as recently pointed out by credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s which raised the prospect of a downgrade in Japan’s sovereign debt rating.
“The budget bill appears to be overshadowed by concern over a severe revenue shortage and its implications for the future of Japan’spublic finances, which are already debt-laden to a perilous extent.”
“Japan’s economic policy flexibility has diminished as a result of increased fiscal deficits and government debt, persistent deflation and a prospect of continued sluggish economic growth”, analysts at the firm said in a note. “It’s impossible to keep tolerating this massive spending,” said Takeshi Minami , chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute in Tokyo. “Japan’s fiscal health will continue to be exceedingly severe given revenue won’t grow and a stagnant recovery may require additional economic
measures.” A major reason for the squeeze is a plunge in prospective tax revenues due to the economic downturn and the drop in corporate profits. Tax revenues for fiscal 2010 are estimated to fall to ¥37.4 trillion, the same level as 26 years ago, in the mid-1980s — while corporate tax revenues are expected
to be half the amount in normal years. As a result, the government has to raise ¥44.3 billion in new government bonds, compared to ¥53.5 trillion in FY2009. This leaves the treasury dependent on debt for 48% of the total budget, up 10 percentage points. At the end of the fiscal year, on March 31, 2011, the
outstanding balance of government bond issues will have shot up to ¥637 trillion, the equivalent of 134% of Japan’s GDP while public debt will probably spiral to ¥973 trillion, almost double GDP.
According to the new government, the economic policies adopted by the previous ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), failed on two fronts: initially boosting demand by increasing public investment, which was effective in the short term but not sustainable until the end of the 1990s. And later enhancing the supply side of the economy by deregulating the labour market and privatizing public entities, which simply widened the income gap within the economy, in the 2000s. However, the new budget was not well received by most observers. The announcement was rather sudden and lacked a comprehensive path to
achieve the stated goals, they claim. Also, no reliable, specific incentives were offered, such as tax changes or deregulation that affect private sector behaviour.
More importantly, given its enormous debt, the government has limited room to offer any incentives without jeopardizing other parts of the economy. However, there was no mention of these painful trade-offs. In addition, while the budget contains some signs of change, there is concern that it may not adequately stimulate the economy. Most private sector economists believe that spending measures in the fiscal 2010 budget (and in the second fiscal 2009 supplementary budget) are expected to provide a limited boost to Japan’s GDP and to kick in no sooner than April
.
“Most private sector economists believe that spending measures in the fiscal 2010 budget are expected to provide a limited boost to Japan’s GDP and to kick in no sooner than April.”
Overall, the budget appears to be the result of a compromise between an attempt to impose some fiscal discipline and the promises made in last year’s summer election of new direct supports to households, such as child allowance, as well as concern over a double-dip recession. “Harsh financial conditions have prevented the administration from keeping all the promises that the DPJ made during its campaign last summer (for instance it has eliminated highway tolls and the gasoline tax). But the administration has succeeded, to some extent, in realizing the party’s slogan of “shifting weight to people from concrete” and its aim of providing more funds for households, rather than for industry-linked organizations and large-scale public works projects”, asserted in its editorial the Japan Times, one of the main national newspapers.
“Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats.”
The budget must now be approved by Japan’s parliament before taking effect. Hatoyama’s popularity has dropped to 48% this month from 71% after he took the office in September. Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats. So in the end the budget and its goals may be more dream than reality.
Monday, September 13, 2010
Shaw Capital Management News Washington Waxes Brazilian
Brazil provides us with an example of a rapidly developing, energy-hungry economy in the Western Hemisphere, where biofuel is a fact of life. Biofuel is also an investment imperative for energy investors and companies that want to make money in Brazil. As an important part of the #3 economy in the Americas, ethanol can't be ignored by the United States.
(Sugar) Ethanol as a Global Commodity; Focus on Cosan Ltd. (NYSE: CZZ) Cosan is entering into a joint venture with an oil giant that could be worth $12 billion, and its happy beginning to 2010 signals a renewal of interest in ethanol and entrance of some unlikely participants into biofuels. Cosan, a Brazilian company that processes more sugar than anyone else in the world, is now joining with Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS), the #2 oil producer in Europe.
Shell is paying Cosan $1.625 billion for half of its core assets. As part of the joint venture that will emerge, Shell is also taking on Cosan's debt and opening up 2,740 Shell service stations to Cosan's sweet, green fuel. Shell will also give Cosan two small Brazilian companies … Codexis and Iogen … where Shell has been investing in ethanol. Cosan is entering into a joint venture with an oil giant that could be worth $12 billion, and... signals a renewal of interest in ethanol and entrance of some unlikely participants into biofuels.
Shaw Capital Management News: Cosan stands to gain big from an efficient system of turning agricultural leftovers into fuel in its own right. Of all the money and knowledge changing hands, one part is most important: By gaining access to Shell's distribution system, Cosan will have the luxury of ramping up production without
worrying if there will be buyers.
Shell wants to fertilize Cosan's cane-based business. Cosan output now has to grow from 2 billion liters per year up to the 3 billion that will be needed to satisfy a total 4,500 fuel stations in Brazil. From there, it's up to 4 and 5
billion liters annually and on to making ethanol a global commodity. You'd be hard pressed to tell the difference between Shell and Cosan's statements on this joint venture if you removed a couple of words. Very simply, each company wants access to the other's expertise. "Cosan represents the best entry to sustainable biofuels in the market... the best entry of scale," Shell's Mark Williams said in London. In Sao Paulo, Cosan Chairman Rubens Ometto said the tie-up is intended to be "the step forward that was lacking, in spite of all our efforts, to make ethanol a global commodity." Shell's 45,000 stations around the world will pump biofuel to vehicles that can run on gasoline, ethanol, or a mixture of the two.
Shaw Capital Management News: Low prices also help, as evidenced in Brazil where flex-fuel vehicles now account for 90% of new cars and truck sales. Shell's 45,000 stations around the world will pump biofuel to vehicles that can run on gasoline, ethanol, or a mixture of the two (Brazil mandates that all gasoline have at least a 20% ethanol component). As it stands, Brazilians are the end users of the vast majority of the ethanol that their country produces (about 25 billion liters annually). And you wouldn't know it from most of the media, but ethanol is more than just an automotive matter...
Shaw Capital Management - Investment Innovation & Excellence. We provide the information, insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. Shaw Capital typically offers its clients such services as asset allocation and portfolio design; traditional and non-traditional manager review and selection; portfolio implementation; portfolio monitoring and consolidated performance reporting; and other wealth management services, including estate, tax, trust and insurance planning, asset custody, closely held business issues associated with the establishment or expansion of a family office, the formation of family investment partnerships or LLCs, philanthropy, family dynamics and inter-generation issues, etc.
(Sugar) Ethanol as a Global Commodity; Focus on Cosan Ltd. (NYSE: CZZ) Cosan is entering into a joint venture with an oil giant that could be worth $12 billion, and its happy beginning to 2010 signals a renewal of interest in ethanol and entrance of some unlikely participants into biofuels. Cosan, a Brazilian company that processes more sugar than anyone else in the world, is now joining with Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS), the #2 oil producer in Europe.
Shell is paying Cosan $1.625 billion for half of its core assets. As part of the joint venture that will emerge, Shell is also taking on Cosan's debt and opening up 2,740 Shell service stations to Cosan's sweet, green fuel. Shell will also give Cosan two small Brazilian companies … Codexis and Iogen … where Shell has been investing in ethanol. Cosan is entering into a joint venture with an oil giant that could be worth $12 billion, and... signals a renewal of interest in ethanol and entrance of some unlikely participants into biofuels.
Shaw Capital Management News: Cosan stands to gain big from an efficient system of turning agricultural leftovers into fuel in its own right. Of all the money and knowledge changing hands, one part is most important: By gaining access to Shell's distribution system, Cosan will have the luxury of ramping up production without
worrying if there will be buyers.
Shell wants to fertilize Cosan's cane-based business. Cosan output now has to grow from 2 billion liters per year up to the 3 billion that will be needed to satisfy a total 4,500 fuel stations in Brazil. From there, it's up to 4 and 5
billion liters annually and on to making ethanol a global commodity. You'd be hard pressed to tell the difference between Shell and Cosan's statements on this joint venture if you removed a couple of words. Very simply, each company wants access to the other's expertise. "Cosan represents the best entry to sustainable biofuels in the market... the best entry of scale," Shell's Mark Williams said in London. In Sao Paulo, Cosan Chairman Rubens Ometto said the tie-up is intended to be "the step forward that was lacking, in spite of all our efforts, to make ethanol a global commodity." Shell's 45,000 stations around the world will pump biofuel to vehicles that can run on gasoline, ethanol, or a mixture of the two.
Shaw Capital Management News: Low prices also help, as evidenced in Brazil where flex-fuel vehicles now account for 90% of new cars and truck sales. Shell's 45,000 stations around the world will pump biofuel to vehicles that can run on gasoline, ethanol, or a mixture of the two (Brazil mandates that all gasoline have at least a 20% ethanol component). As it stands, Brazilians are the end users of the vast majority of the ethanol that their country produces (about 25 billion liters annually). And you wouldn't know it from most of the media, but ethanol is more than just an automotive matter...
Shaw Capital Management - Investment Innovation & Excellence. We provide the information, insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. Shaw Capital typically offers its clients such services as asset allocation and portfolio design; traditional and non-traditional manager review and selection; portfolio implementation; portfolio monitoring and consolidated performance reporting; and other wealth management services, including estate, tax, trust and insurance planning, asset custody, closely held business issues associated with the establishment or expansion of a family office, the formation of family investment partnerships or LLCs, philanthropy, family dynamics and inter-generation issues, etc.
Shaw Capital Management February Newsletter: Government bond Markets 3 of 3
Jun 17, 2010 – Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Article three of three - The markets are assuming that the more powerful members of the eurozone will support the weaker members in order to prevent defaults that might threaten the single currency structure; but the yield spreads have widened considerably to reflect the increased risks. Our tentative view is that the markets will “muddle through”, and that defaults will be avoided; but higher overall yield levels seem unavoidable. Prospects in these markets are therefore very unattractive. The gilt edged market has also come under pressure over the past month; short-term yields have remained basically unchanged, but there have been increases in medium and longer-term yields that has produced a much steeper yield curve.
Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Article three of three - There has been evidence of a modest improvement in the economic background; and the Bank of England is proving to be a stabilising influence at a difficult time; but a very disappointing Pre-Budget Report has indicated that there will be no attempt to address the problems of the huge fiscal deficit until after the election. Our tentative view is that the markets will “muddle through”, and that defaults will be avoided; but higher overall yield levels seem unavoidable. Prospects in these markets are therefore very unattractive. Funding pressures will therefore continued to increase; and so, although there does not appear to be any real danger that the UK might join the list of countries that could default on their sovereign debts, annual debt issues in excess of £200 billion cannot continue for long if this is to be avoided. It is no surprise therefore that investors have reacted by reducing their exposure to the market.
Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Article three of three - There is still some doubt whether the UK economy has moved out of recession. The pace of contraction in the third quarter of the year has been slightly reduced, and since then the pace of job losses has declined, and consumer spending has held up fairly well. But business investment and manufacturing activity remains weak, and so there may have been no overall improvement in the final quarter of last year. The Bank of England has therefore kept short-term interest rates at 0.5%, and maintained its quantitative easing programme, and this has provided support for the market, since the bank has been a major buyer of gilts in recent months.
Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Article three of three - However it has not been enough to prevent a very adverse reaction to the Pre-Budget Report from the UK Chancellor. The market did not really expect any significant action on the deficit ahead of the forth-coming general election; but was still surprised by the apparent lack of realism. The government is prepared to allow the deficit to continue to accumulate, and is relying on the gilt edged market to provide the funds to finance that deficit in the hope that this will enable it to win the election, and has produced no real indications of how the deficit might be reduced even after the election is over. It is not surprising therefore that investors have reacted by reducing exposure, that 10-year yields have risen to 4% and longer-term yields to 4.5%, and that there are even suggestions that the country could face a capital flight and a full-blown debt crisis in the coming months. We do not share these extreme views; but clearly the prospects for the market are very unattractive, and higher yields appear unavoidable. Investors have reacted by reducing exposure... and there are even suggestions that the country could face a capital flight and a fullblown debt crisis in the coming months.
Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Article three of three - The Japanese bond market is basically unchanged over the past month; but there are fears that present yield levels are unsustainable. A sharp reduction in the growth estimate for the third quarter of last year, and weaknesses since then have raised the possibility of a move back into recession and a further period of deflation. The government has reacted by launching its fourth fiscal rescue package since the economic crisis began last year. It amounts to the equivalent of a further $81 billion to be spent in the regions and on subsidies for consumer durables, and is expected to lift the debt issuance this year to a record $835 billion, despite the indications that bond investors may be becoming increasingly unwilling to finance such a high level of new bonds, and the warning from the IMF that the government is risking a significant increase in debt funding costs. Since overseas involvement in the bond market is at a very low level, such a development is unlikely to affect bond markets elsewhere directly; but it could be a warning to other countries of the dangers of placing too much pressure on their own markets.
Shaw Capital Management Korea - Investment Innovation & Excellence. We provide the information, insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. Shaw Capital Management based in Korea typically offers its clients such services as asset allocation and portfolio design; traditional and non-traditional manager review and selection; portfolio implementation;
Every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.
# # #
Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Article three of three - There has been evidence of a modest improvement in the economic background; and the Bank of England is proving to be a stabilising influence at a difficult time; but a very disappointing Pre-Budget Report has indicated that there will be no attempt to address the problems of the huge fiscal deficit until after the election. Our tentative view is that the markets will “muddle through”, and that defaults will be avoided; but higher overall yield levels seem unavoidable. Prospects in these markets are therefore very unattractive. Funding pressures will therefore continued to increase; and so, although there does not appear to be any real danger that the UK might join the list of countries that could default on their sovereign debts, annual debt issues in excess of £200 billion cannot continue for long if this is to be avoided. It is no surprise therefore that investors have reacted by reducing their exposure to the market.
Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Article three of three - There is still some doubt whether the UK economy has moved out of recession. The pace of contraction in the third quarter of the year has been slightly reduced, and since then the pace of job losses has declined, and consumer spending has held up fairly well. But business investment and manufacturing activity remains weak, and so there may have been no overall improvement in the final quarter of last year. The Bank of England has therefore kept short-term interest rates at 0.5%, and maintained its quantitative easing programme, and this has provided support for the market, since the bank has been a major buyer of gilts in recent months.
Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Article three of three - However it has not been enough to prevent a very adverse reaction to the Pre-Budget Report from the UK Chancellor. The market did not really expect any significant action on the deficit ahead of the forth-coming general election; but was still surprised by the apparent lack of realism. The government is prepared to allow the deficit to continue to accumulate, and is relying on the gilt edged market to provide the funds to finance that deficit in the hope that this will enable it to win the election, and has produced no real indications of how the deficit might be reduced even after the election is over. It is not surprising therefore that investors have reacted by reducing exposure, that 10-year yields have risen to 4% and longer-term yields to 4.5%, and that there are even suggestions that the country could face a capital flight and a full-blown debt crisis in the coming months. We do not share these extreme views; but clearly the prospects for the market are very unattractive, and higher yields appear unavoidable. Investors have reacted by reducing exposure... and there are even suggestions that the country could face a capital flight and a fullblown debt crisis in the coming months.
Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter: Article three of three - The Japanese bond market is basically unchanged over the past month; but there are fears that present yield levels are unsustainable. A sharp reduction in the growth estimate for the third quarter of last year, and weaknesses since then have raised the possibility of a move back into recession and a further period of deflation. The government has reacted by launching its fourth fiscal rescue package since the economic crisis began last year. It amounts to the equivalent of a further $81 billion to be spent in the regions and on subsidies for consumer durables, and is expected to lift the debt issuance this year to a record $835 billion, despite the indications that bond investors may be becoming increasingly unwilling to finance such a high level of new bonds, and the warning from the IMF that the government is risking a significant increase in debt funding costs. Since overseas involvement in the bond market is at a very low level, such a development is unlikely to affect bond markets elsewhere directly; but it could be a warning to other countries of the dangers of placing too much pressure on their own markets.
Shaw Capital Management Korea - Investment Innovation & Excellence. We provide the information, insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. Shaw Capital Management based in Korea typically offers its clients such services as asset allocation and portfolio design; traditional and non-traditional manager review and selection; portfolio implementation;
Every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.
# # #
Shaw Capital Management Korea - Investment Innovation & Excellence. We provide the information, insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. Shaw Capital Management based in Korea typically offers its clients such services as asset allocation and portfolio design; traditional and non-traditional manager review and selection; portfolio implementation;
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